Monday, December 2, 2013

Malevolent Rise





The air quality was rated “very unhealthy” yesterday.  I think I can feel it.  Today we’re down to “unhealthy.”  Take a deep breath.  The sun looked malevolent, confrontational, as it rose in the December sky, fat, hazy, rusty off above the trees from the second floor window of the gym.  Across the street is the lot between this villa complex and another.  I’ve commented on it as the land where nothing grows.  Five years now and the vegetation has yet to return.  Here’s what I wrote a year ago about it in “7DS”:

Outside the main gate and across the way is an abandoned field, surrounded by purposed, pointy, conifer bushes to block the view.   From the main road there are high walled billboards that also seal off the scenery with posters of dreamy villa life: a private pool, a misty mountain view.  Behind the billboard, and the conifers, inside the lot, nothing grows.   I’ve been here for four years now and the scrub forest has never returned.  There has to be something toxic in the ground.   There must be.  Why is nothing growing?

The question remains.  Now it appears that are plowing it down, running it over.  It is prime real estate.  Presumably we’ll have a new version of luxury living on these grounds before long, like the one in the distance.  I really wonder though, why nothing sprouts up over there.  Land left alone for years should rejuvenate, unless their is something wrong.  Appropriately, perhaps, it is the Dead Boys who great me for the first tune on the stair master.  Looking over the dead field, I consider Stiv Bators, the lead singer, watching people from his room, in the song, “Sonic Reducer.”



The Cleveland Catholic School boys who moved to New York on Joey Ramone’s suggestion and helped define the late seventies punk scene there. They’d broken up by the time I was seeing shows at CB’s in 1981.  I always remember one remarkable anecdote of theirs narrated by their comparatively sober, ironic bass player Jeff Magnum about how their drummer Johnny Blitz had yelled something confrontational to a carload of Puerto Rican guys driving by on the Bowery.  Mr. Magnum had apparently counseled Mr. Blitz that this not wise and provoke this car load of youths, but Mr. Magnum proceeded, undeterred.  Not surprisingly the car returned and a rather lopsided battle ensued that left Johnny Blitz hospitalized with his chest stabbed.  I believe Jeff’s comment in the Legs McNeil book “Please Kill Me” was “didn’t your mother, didn't someone teach you not to provoke a car load full of Puerto Rican teens?”  Indeed. 

“Sonic Reducer” is of course, the metaphor for the band.  “I got my time machine.  Got my electronic train.”  And that had me back in New York.  Now it turns out that the Metro North train took the hard left there at Spuyten Duyvil, what is effectively a ninety-degree angle, doing 83 M.P.H.  Damn.  I didn’t know that Metro North trains were capable of doing 83 M.P.H in a straight-away.  The recommended speed for the turn is 30 M.P.H.   As Governor Cuomo said: “there were three possible causes for the accident: the condition of the tracks, an equipment failure or human error.”  For that engineer’s sake, I hope door number one or door number two.  By the way, where has Mayor Bloomberg been?

Returning to this question of Air Defense, the Times made an interesting suggestion today that Xi Jin Ping has not, historically cultivated much of any outreach to Japan.  He’s visited there and received delegations, but has had much less dealings with his neighbors, than say the disgraced party leader Bo Xi Lai.  What the Times didn’t say was whether or not Shinzo Abe had spent much of any time getting to know China.  One presumes he had some experience during his brief, first term in power.  But has he done more than made an obligatory visit or two to this country, during his rise to power?  As I suggested before, both men bear the legacy of fathers (and in Abe’s case, grandfather) who ruled before them, governing as they must beneath their and the all shadows of the last century.  

 The Chinese strategy, now appearing ever more likely to have had the blessing of Xi Jin Ping, was to force Japan back to the bargaining table.  Japan’s position is that there is nothing to discuss.  The islands are Japanese territory, period.  China may have succeeded in forcing differences between the U.S. and Japanese position.  And has certainly started what can only be seen as a reasonable discussion as to why, if the U.S. has an air defense zone, and Japan has an air defense zone, is it not possible China to have one?  The issue is the, if you will, ‘bull in a China shop” fashion that China has introduced the matter.  China could have announced that it was considering such a thing, announced that they were doing it over the whole coast and excluded the disputed area and demanded negotiations around it, etc.  But instead they made their assertion, 乘人不备[1]  and forced the others to scramble, grumble and calculate their reactions.  That can be fine, if you've completely given up on international affinities and alliances and simply see all as a zero sum game.  This blog by Andrew Erickson has an interesting analysis:



What would have happened if China reached out quietly to the U.S. and announced that this was their intention?  Perhaps they did, though I doubt it.  Perhaps they would have rightly assumed that the U.S. would not have treated the information carefully, would immediately leak it to Japan, etc.  One can understand that a rising power isn’t always graceful as it goes about upending the status quo.  But there is potential to do more than surprise with assertions that seem petulant with their abruptness.  China should risk an effort to try more confidence building with the information it has and how it is shared.  Right now the nation's remains bereft of real allies.  Otherwise no one will see the emerging giant as something to trust and the noise back from the world, will serve to make China that much more bristly and people will assume the worst of your rise, as if your intentions are really no better then the Dead Boys:

Things will be different then
The sun will rise from here
Then I'll be ten feet tall
And you'll be nothing at all. 

Meanwhile, if America wants creative, and risky olive branches from Beijing, it might consider how best to model such behavior first.  All the more so, for Japan. Simply insisting upon the status quo is not defensible for the medium term. 


 





[1] chéngrénbùbèi:  to take advantage of sb in an unguarded moment (idiom) / to take sb by surprise
                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Earth to Bugs Bunny




I’m still filling myself up with news of this rail crash back in the Bronx.  Metro north train flips the tracks and the engine in the back pushing the cars, shoves them all right up off into the dirt, one by one.  That is one ride I know in my sleep.  A guy described waking up to it.  That would have been me.  Dozed off to the click-clack of the wheels on the tracks.  Then wake to something you can’t stop. 

Some things seem so routine that the element of any danger has been completely removed.  Like commuter trains, where you forget you’re riding along steel rails at 60 mph.  You always know there is danger in a car, whether or not you’re attuned to it.  A plane may be statistically safer but you’re always pondering the imponderable crash, regardless.  But a Metro North commuter train?  I can’t think of when I’d have ever spared a thought for safety aboard those trains.  And I’m sure everyone on board had felt the same way, when they got on that morning.  Blessings then, to all those who were killed or hurt in this terrible accident.

Not sure why I’ve such a lingering headache today.  It is a dull drag on everything.  Sleepy too, when I really shouldn’t be.  I’ve bit of Philly Joe Jones on.  That Bill Hardman from a few days earlier lead me to this album “Showcase” from 1959 . . . (dozing off just now, like someone on the train.  More morning coffee is required.)  Apparently both Miles and Bill Evans regarded the man from Philadelphia as their favorite drummer.  While Mr. Jones said he owed what he had to Tadd Dameron, the “romantacist of the bop movement” who I’ve taken a note on to dig deeper into some other time. 

I wrote about the goddess Chang’e the other day, who made her way up to the moon.  I couldn’t see the moon this morning for the early morning ride over for the school drop-off.  But that didn’t stop China from launching the Chang’e Three mission today to put the Jade Rabbit on the moon.  If Mel Blanc and Warner Brothers were still making Bugs Bunny cartoons this would be rich material.  I seem to recall one Bugs episode where he is hanging on the corner of a crescent moon.  When they achieve radio contact calling: “Earth to Bugs Bunny, Earth to Bugs Bunny, “ he grabs the mic and yells “Get me out of here!”  


Importantly, it was the "earth" calling Bugs, on our moon, not, what in those pre-NASA days would have been: "The United States War Department," on the line. 

I’ve read quite a bit lately the unpleasant, unscientific ramifications of Congress' 2011 law that bans NASA from developing bilateral relations with China.  There have been scientific gatherings where Chinese were not allowed to attend.  Scientists sheepishly forced to rescind invitations to purely scientific exchanges.  Shades of Dr. Tsien Hsue-Shen who was unjustly hounded out of the U.S. during the red-scare only to go and launch China’s ballistics program from Beijing.  I saw one quote in the NY Times article that caught my eye: 

“But China’s program has reached a point where deeper cooperation with the United States or Russia would make little difference, said Gregory Kulacki, China project manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists. He nonetheless supports closer contacts to foster cooperation and reduce mistrust. “They don’t really need to rely on any outside sources to continue to make the progress that they’re making,” Mr. Kulacki said.”

Innovation is still driven by the West, for a while.  But it isn’t necessary.  That’s fascinating to ponder.  On the one hand, good for humanity that so many smart capable minds are liberated to think about and work on matters such as space exploration.  But at the same time, what a pity that nation states being what they are, we seem doomed to continue this effort in a competitive rather than collaborative manner.   And innovation will now begin to spawn things widely in a way that the West will no longer control, if it ever once did.  One more milestone for China as it 推陈出新[1]




America’s space exploration was and is good for humanity while at the same time good for American military power projection.  It is difficult for Americans to untangle the two.  While it is a rather easy matter for the Chinese.  If you don’t want to live under American hegemony, you’ll have to figure out how to do these things for yourself, step by step.  And the days of needing to “steal” technology, at least in this arena, espionage, by another name, appears of waning relevance. 

I’m eager to learn what my kids learn about the mission today at school.  I can recall, at least I think I can, looking for the “man on the moon” as a child, during the U.S. space mission and believing that, if I squinted, I could see him up there.  It reinforced a marrow level sense of pride.  And I would imagine that for kids of most other nations, it was a more complicated affair mixed with awe at human achievement and a bit of envy from a national perspective.  Envy is a powerful motivator with unintended consequences.  The Medieval tonic for envy was “kindness” though as I’ve suggested earlier, I don’t think it's a sufficiently powerful, or perhaps appropriate, antidote. 

Still, the world should meditate on a bit of kindness, rather than envy or scorn for this mission.  May the Jade Rabbit reach the Bay of Rainbows and share with the world many new insights into our shared lunar body.  May NASA (or more appropriately Congress) reconsider its aversion to dialogue, as a result.  We should be trading, not hording baseball cards, about the moon.  The innovation of mankind is, alas, uncork-able.  And the balkanization of innovation portends something very dangerous to my ears. 




[1] tuīchénchūxīn:  to push out the old and bring in the new (idiom); to innovate / to go beyond old ideas / advancing all the time

Back to Earth





The bus now, en route out of Hong Kong.  I could never drive in Hong Kong.  I don’t mind the insanity of Beijing.   I’ve driven for days on the wrong side of the in Ireland.  But Hong Kong is like an aggressive corporeal system pulsing at the highest speeds imaginable.  Capillaries into an artery system that is all fast, assumed and backward.  I still marvel at how people pause and yield when they do to dotted lines, which I think I would ignore to great consequence.     

Off to the right, this time is the infinite pier.  The photo I included yesterday of rail cars and rail cars and rail cars stacked at containers, off loading equipment.  Is this the biggest port in the world or is the one next door in Shenzhen or Guangzhou or is it the one up in Shanghai that claims the mantle?  Certain there is more activity here, in the Pearl River Delta, and now, along this coast, in total, than any other port or series of ports in the world.  Up an over this bridge that was built during the time I lived here.  Apartments that ring the mountains and fill up all the available space with increasing density.  Seen from the sky though, the SAR still has a remarkable amount of park space.  

It’s the second time now we’ve had the message on the bus intercom informing us that to bring any more than two cans of powdered milk up across the boarder is a crime, punishable by 500K HKD.  Once again, Mainland Chinese demeaned.   The urge couldn’t be more reasonable.  No snake-oil-salesmen, please.  People want to secure safe powder for their children.  That or they want to bring safe powdered milk to people who want to buy it at a premium.  Reasonable, surely.  I wonder how long the line will be heading back in to China? Somehow it always seems faster.  The pier just goes on and on and on wherever the land meets the sea.  There is a boat down there that says: “China Tanker.”

Following from yesterday’s bit about airspace, in an interesting turn of events, the U.S. has now said that U.S. airlines should announce their flight plans heading through the contested air space that China now claims and wants to patrol.  The two Japanese major airlines initially did the same, but then the government told them not to.  China’s objective, as explained by the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) was to force Japan back to the negotiating table.  I think my earlier thesis holds, that the CCP are not afraid to look silly and are prepared to advance carefully, methodically to disrupt the status quo.  Now, suddenly, despite the frustration of South Korea and Taiwan, and others, about the claim, it is essentially Japan that looks isolated. Japan and the U.S. wants the status quo.  So does the U.S. But China does not and is prepared to disrupt things.  How much friction is possible with out an overhaul?  Disruption by a rising power will either be gracefully accommodated, or it won’t be.  But disruption, will be. 

And as it concerns Hong Kong, my thesis in “7DS” was that greed was an outdated assignation for the city.  Greed, effective realization of greed, wealth, and then the disappointment as others got wealthy and wealthier, this is the limited narrow circle of activity left when your ability to rule and provide defend and determine your fate, is removed from you as a people.  Hong Kong was a colony.  Hong Kong remains a colony.  But if Beijing continues to allow the development of a Special Political  Zone, (SPZ) as opposed to simply having Special Economic Zones (SEZs), there are some interesting things that could happen.  If Beijing allows Hong Kong to be the first part of the PRC under Beijing jurisdiction to choose its political head, regardless of all the other compromise, that will be a huge step for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP.)  The CCP is not supposed to solicit input and tolerate dissent publicly.  If they allow elections they will. It will be compromised and flawed just like nearly every American election, particularly when our representative democracy was young.  But the experiments almost necessarily must proceed slowly.  Cautiously.  And in doing so, I imagine the Central leadership’s dialogue with the population of Hong Kong, in almost Confucian terms.  A sage “population” having the courage to tell the “emperor” who has power, but conditional power, through the mandate of heaven what their sage counsel is.  "We want this.  We don’t want that."  2017 isn't far off. 

Well.  Slowing.  I think we are getting close to the boarder.  Time to bid Hong Kong farewell.  Let’s see how long it takes, this time.



Right.  The crossing on the way back took three minutes.  The one on the way over takes 93 minutes.  Why?  Isn’t there some way to staff up to handle the volume?  How does everyone return if not by this method?  Now we’re crossing the river.  It must be 70 yards wide.  There’s a bridge required to pass.  “Rivulet” from yesterday, is too disparaging.  Maybe not full on brine but there’s some thing to it this channel.  You could drown.  You could not make it.  We’re across and at the Chinese  boarder crossing now.  Maybe there is still a long line to deal with?  I doubt it though.  See you back in a bit.



No.  No line at all.  Returning is a breeze.  Is there a time when returning to China from Hong Kong is congested?  Is it later in the day?  Is it early in the morning?  Have the authorities  夕改[1]?  No.  Heading over to Hong Kong by any physical means, seems always to be atrocious.  Coming back seems always easy.  People continually pouring into Hong Kong must come back somehow or do the just keep flowing out into the world?

Hours later we’ve flown up and through the new, benchmark of modernity the Shenzhen airport.  They keep learning.  It is perhaps the best looking "new airport yet."  I actually like the ceiling.  

We’re in the car now, in Beijing.  Colder of course, but not atrocious.  Dusty out there, but it’s not so bad.  Smoke from a fire.  Dust kicked up by a truck going the wrong way down the street.  Definitely back in the country of  tawny blowing earth.  Anita O’Day on the car vocal.  A nice track with Oscar Petersen on the keys.  “Anita Sings the Most” from 1957 this is.  The cover couldn’t be more dusty.

Back home.  Stop the press:  A five cars derailed and flipped on the Hudson Line south of Spuyten Duyvil on the train down from Poughkeepsie.  That’s my ride.  Yipes.  I can’t imagine being on that train and winding up in the Hudson, or worse.  I wrote about that ride in “7DS.”  I sure hope everyone is OK and the injuries are modest if there were some and that no one was seriously hurt.  One could imagine the reaction if a train derailment had happened here in China. 






[1] zhāoguòxīgǎi:  to correct in the evening a fault of the morning (idiom) / to quickly amend one's ways
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