Saturday, April 5, 2014

What Would We Do?




Following on the Brazilian tip from yesterday I clicked on what appeared a lovely, tasteful album cover in the animated style of Tin Tin, “Aystelum” by Ed Motta.  As with my dive into Max de Castro yesterday, I had no idea what to expect.  Gorgeous contemporary samba-jazz, this expression of which was nominated for a Grammy in 2006.  Huge, hirsute on the chin but not on the dome, Mr. Motta reminded me of that other larger than life Brazilian singer of a generation earlier, Tim Maia.  Come to find out he is the interstellar soul man’s nephew.  On to the title tune now he has mild, gentle voice for such large gent. I tried to look up what the word meant.  Is “aystelum” asylum in Portuguese?  Google translate couldn't do anything with it going from Portuguese to English.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Motta



I was playing the Max de Castro yesterday out into my porch.  We had people over.  Mostly Chinese guests who were more comfortable conversing in their mother tongue.  Just about every foreigner who joined had the requisite chops to join the conversation so it all flowed.  But I noted how differently I filled the space, when I switched from Chinese pleasantries to digging in to a conversation about Jazz in English with a friend who’d just arrived.  I played some of the things I’ve been “discovering” like Howard McGhee and Tina Brooks and Blue Mitchell, 公诸同好[1]. Odd how rare it is to be able to do that as an adult.  It was the only topic of conversation with anyone as a teen.

Grilled lamb, grilled beef and someone else manning the grill.  Easy to relax and enjoy the conversation.  With one couple I’d just met, the topic eventually turned to Japan and the poverty of Sino-Japanese relations.  The sun was setting and everyone was well on their way.  It’s not hard to get educated people to at least consider, how things might improve and what it might mean for China if they did.



The New York Times this morning had an interesting article threw me for a loop.  I have been considering the events in the Crimea in terms of what they mean for relations between the U.S. and Russia or between Russia and China.  But I hadn’t yet considered what disruption of the status quo might mean for US-Japan relations.  Quietly, of course, Japan is worried by what they saw happen in the Ukraine.  Effectively, a rising power successfully challenged the status quo.  The U.S. response or lack thereof flies in the face of Bill Clinton’s 1994 commitment to “respect” the territorial integrity of the Ukraine if it gave up nuclear weapons, in what was known as the Budapest Memorandum.  What would the U.S. do if China made a grab for the Diaoyu / Senakaku Islands?

Obama will be over soon and will be pressed to clarify the American position on the islands.  Technically they are managed by Japan.  If they are attacked it is an attack on “Japan” and the U.S. and Japan have a mutual security treaty signed in 1952.  But while Obama has referenced the status quo on the Diaoyu/Senakakus, he has refrained from stating explicitly that America will intervene in the case of attack on the islands.  China is watching, considering whether they too might not be able to move swiftly and decisively.  If they did and America did not respond militarily, the entire post war defense paradigm and the presence of U.S. soldiers in Japan, is all in question.  If China miscalculates, attacks and does draw a military response, the risks are equally catastrophic.  It would appear to be one time when the American voice should be clear or adventurous members of the Chinese brass might consider launching something recklessly.
 
What happens then, if China does a lightening strike?  Japan would presumably fight, with our without the U.S.  If they were held off for a time, and the U.S. decided intervention was not worth the risk of nuclear war, then China would be sanctioned far more dramatically than anything that’s happened to Russia.  The world economy would suffer tremendously.   Domestically economic woes would increase the likelihood of social unrest and regionally, relations with every neighboring country, save North Korea would worsen significantly.  Taiwan public opinion would likely but not definitively shift against China, making that coveted dream of reclaiming the island, slip further from their grasp.  Rationally, I don’t think they are likely to pursue this path as it may fundamentally risk the continuance of Party rule.  But this testing and analysis of U.S. commitment to regional defense will continue for the foreseeable.                                                                               










[1] gōngzhūtónghào:  to share pleasure in the company of others (idiom); shared enjoyment with fellow enthusiasts

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